Following FY2020 and the communication of a new guidance for both 2021 and 2024, we have (sharply) adjusted our EPS. 2020 was supposed to be an exceptionnal year for Swissquote but from our discussions with management, it appears that 2020 is actually a game-changer for Swissquote. Hence, the very bullish guidance communicated by management for the coming years.
Management indeed expects a 15% growth in revenues and a 23% increase in pre-tax profit for 2021. It expects CHF500m revenues and CHF200m pre-tax profit for 2024.
The development of Swissquote at the international level and the trading of crypto-currencies are among the reasons for this guidance. At the same time, new accounts opening ytd remains buoyant vs 2020. Management therefore expects about CHF5bn/year new net money until 2024 (vs CHF3bn previously). We wrote a Latest on Monday, 22 March, detailing the guidance.
Our NAV is based on a three-year average pre-tax profit. As we have (sharply) increased our expectations for the coming years, it therefore positively impacts the NAV as well.
As we have (sharply) increased our pre-tax profit for 2021, 2022 and 2023, the DCF is mechanically increased as well (we have not changed other hypotheses in terms of long-term growth).
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