Our target price is mechanically cut by allowing for a c. 23% drop in 2020 revenues and a best guess at zero profits. The small industrial conglomerate entered the COVID-19 crisis with a very strong balance sheet and a cool-headed owner and CEO. It should rebound as quickly as its underlying markets, notably the promising security/safety ones.
2020 earnings reflect the fact that a near 25% drop in revenue cannot help absorb fixed costs. We see only a partial recovery in 2021.
Our DCF is impacted by postponed growth and slower long-term expectations. The long-term growth expectations do not allow for a widening of EBITDA margins in rather competitive industries.
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