We have adjusted our EPS estimates based on the expected entry into operation of the Marseille plant in early 2020 versus our assumption of late 2019. Lower expected revenues due to the omission of any output from Marseille are more than offset by the production start-up costs, most of which would be put off to 2020, resulting in a marginally higher EPS for 2019.
However, for 2020, the delayed capacity ramp-up results in a revenue base 8.4% lower than our previous estimates and, hence, a slight downgrade in our 2020 EPS.
The DCF was impacted by a change in our assumptions for the upcoming Marseille plant. We now expect the new facility to come on stream in early 2020 in lieu of late 2019, which results in a lower revenue base for the forward looking years, given that Marseille’s production ramp-up to the potential 30,000t/year will be slightly delayed.
This, however, has no material impact on our valuation which remains attractive, supported by a clearer picture in terms of project execution and expected profitability.
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